Gartner released its latest Hype Cycle 2009 research, including the major trends in technology.
According to Gartner, cloud computing, e-books and Internet TV are at the "Peak of Inflated Expectations," while this year's biggest hit Twitter is said to have "tipped over the peak" and is just about to enter the infamous "Trough of Disillusionment." Social software suites and other microblogging services are likewise starting their downward trend. Interestingly, web 2.0 is deemed to be nearly past the Trough and entering the "Slope of Enlightenment."
Gartner states that Cloud computing is "changing the way the IT industry looks at user and vendor relationships." It points to vendors such as Amazon.com, Google, Microsoft and salesforce.com.
Regarding eBooks, Gartner has a bob each way: "This technology is potentially revolutionary if the issues that have suppressed adoption are addressed." It lists Amazon.com, Fujitsu, Plastic Logic and Sony as sample vendors.
Gartner's conclusion about RFID is similar to our own - that it's moving slowly. Gartner notes that "the number of leading retailers working with it [RFID] did not grow greatly through 2008 and will not grow significantly during the next two years."
On Web 2.0, Gartner archly notes that "the Web 2.0 hype has peaked as constituencies vie for the next generation of the Web." However it also puts Web 2.0 in the "early mainstream" and is bullish on its future. Note: we reviewed the latest attempt at the next buzzword, Web squared, last week.
Cloud Computing. As enterprises seek to consume their IT services in the most cost-effective way, interest is growing in drawing a broad range of services (for example, computational power, storage and business applications) from the "cloud," rather than from on-premises equipment. The levels of hype around cloud computing in the IT industry are deafening, with every vendor expounding its cloud strategy and variations, such as private cloud computing and hybrid approaches, compounding the hype.
E-Book Readers. Sony's e-book reader and Amazon's Kindle have attracted a great deal of attention during 2009. However, the devices still suffer from proprietary file formats and digital rights management technologies, which along with price, are limiting their adoption and will drive them into the Trough of Disillusionment.
The following have tipped just past the Peak of Inflated Expectations:
Social Software Suites. Awareness of social technology is high because of the popularity of related consumer social software and Web 2.0 services. Within businesses, there is strong and rapidly growing evidence of experimentation and early production deployments. The movement from point tools to integrated suites has brought broader adoption but also high expectations. Disillusionment is beginning based on the realization that, even with a suite, much work must be done to build an effective social software deployment.
Microblogging. Microblogging, in general, and Twitter, in particular, have exploded in popularity during 2009 to the extent that the inevitable disillusionment around "channel pollution" is beginning. As microblogging becomes a standard feature in enterprise social software platforms, it is earning its place alongside other channels (for example, e-mail, blogging and wikis), enabling new kinds of fast, witty, easy-to-assimilate exchanges.