Tuesday, July 15, 2008

MarketBeat: The Capitulation Stipulation

"One “capitulation” sign chart watchers have been waiting for is a spike on the CBOE volatility index above 30. In the past, that’s been the level where the needle on the fear gauge goes haywire, and when the smoke clears, birds are singing and the stock market is calm and clear. At least that’s what happens in our dreams, and in the last two spikes above 30 (mid-March and early January).
Tuesday, the VIX is up 8% to 30.65, the first time above 30 for the “fear gauge” since March 18, the day after the Bear Stearns collapse hit stocks.
“It’s so bad right now I can’t imagine it gets worse,” says Anthony Conroy, head equity trader for BNY ConvergEx. “1200 seems to be holding on the S&P 500. I think you’re going to see a bounce somewhere down in here.”"

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