As we've noted previously ('Game Theory,' March 1, 2004, and 'Beyond $50 Barrels,' Oct. 4, 2004), Thiel's investment style largely involves making huge macro bets on the future of the economy and the financial markets. In our initial piece two years ago, Thiel laid out a four-pronged investment strategy. One, he predicted a coming period of deflation and lower interest rates, triggered in large part by a drop in real-estate pricing, and loaded up on 10-year bonds. Two, he forecast a substantial slide in the dollar. Three, he took a bearish stance on U.S. stocks, anticipating a big drop in prices. And fourth, he argued that oil, then in the $30 range, was underpriced by at least a factor of two, and deserved to be $50-to-$60 a barrel."
Friday, February 17, 2006
Barron's Online - Thiel
"But for Thiel, the second act may be even better than the first. Thiel, in short, is racking up an astonishing record as a hedge-fund manager. Since its inception in late 2002, Clarium has more than tripled its money, net of fees. Last year alone, the fund returned 57% net to investors. The stunning performance has attracted considerable investor attention: The fund now has $1.6 billion in assets. If Thiel can keep this up, no one will care what he did before.
As we've noted previously ('Game Theory,' March 1, 2004, and 'Beyond $50 Barrels,' Oct. 4, 2004), Thiel's investment style largely involves making huge macro bets on the future of the economy and the financial markets. In our initial piece two years ago, Thiel laid out a four-pronged investment strategy. One, he predicted a coming period of deflation and lower interest rates, triggered in large part by a drop in real-estate pricing, and loaded up on 10-year bonds. Two, he forecast a substantial slide in the dollar. Three, he took a bearish stance on U.S. stocks, anticipating a big drop in prices. And fourth, he argued that oil, then in the $30 range, was underpriced by at least a factor of two, and deserved to be $50-to-$60 a barrel."
As we've noted previously ('Game Theory,' March 1, 2004, and 'Beyond $50 Barrels,' Oct. 4, 2004), Thiel's investment style largely involves making huge macro bets on the future of the economy and the financial markets. In our initial piece two years ago, Thiel laid out a four-pronged investment strategy. One, he predicted a coming period of deflation and lower interest rates, triggered in large part by a drop in real-estate pricing, and loaded up on 10-year bonds. Two, he forecast a substantial slide in the dollar. Three, he took a bearish stance on U.S. stocks, anticipating a big drop in prices. And fourth, he argued that oil, then in the $30 range, was underpriced by at least a factor of two, and deserved to be $50-to-$60 a barrel."
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