Friday, January 27, 2006

Amr Awadallah Blog�Blog Archive � Google will miss 2005-Q4 quarter revenue estimates.

"That said, there is many other reasons to sell GOOG, for example:
1. YPN will be hitting the Adsense program hard in 2006 once it�s out of beta. The adsense program is indeed starting to slow already, the google network revenue grew by 7% sequentially in Q3-2005 as opposed to 20% for google site.
2. Google is going nuts with capital spending (it spent almost twice what Yahoo spent)
3. Google is also hiring like nuts, 800+ people in Q3, on top of 700+ people in Q2 (i.e. a 1/3 of Google�s work force joined in these two quarter). There is two downsides to this: (a) they are hiring lower quality folks (we interview same folks and see who they pick), (ii) they are hiring like yahoo was in 1999/2000, i.e. hiring today expecting that more revenue will come later, that is not always true (as yahoo learned the hard way and laid off a ton of folks in period 2001-2003).
4. Google has been growing the cost of revenues much faster than revenue, in fact their operating margin fell from 35.2% in Q1 of 2005 to 33.5% in Q3"

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